So far so good, Bitcoin has managed to remain above $20K.
Bitcoin has had a glorious bull run in the first half of January, gaining over 22% in the past 7 days alone. At press time, BTC was trading at $21,121, up 0.70% in the past 24 hours according to data from Coinmarketcap.
On Monday, the top cryptocurrency by market capitalization managed to tap a three-month-high of $21,400. Just last week, the asset was trading below $18,300 having been trapped in a ranging market for over three months.
With that $18,300 resistance cleared, the asset’s price surged parabolically before hitting a ceiling along $21,400. Now, as calls for “Bitcoins is going to 50K” intensify, it is important to be cautious about these levels before going all in this week.
Although a bear argument cannot be ruled out completely following a move past the $18k range, the price will most likely bounce if it pulls back to that level. However, before even it drops that low, it has to deal with strong support at $19,800. Notably, that $19k range acted as the peak 2017 peak as well as strong resistance before the 2020-2021 rally.
On the upper side, the $22K area is a key psychological resistance for swing traders. That means that if the level is not breached, it is still within reason to expect more from sellers if a setup presents itself. A slight pullback by price could give ample time for a mini bullish setup to form before buyers can push the price further to $22,700 and then $25,000.
Now, does the recent rally mean that the trend is changing? Whereas it is possible, the simple answer is that there is no way to make that judgment with any degree of certainty.
To avoid the typical retail herd mentality and make decisions rationally, one needs to combine technical analysis with various fundamentals such as the bonds market. Understanding how interest rates affect markets is key. A long-term surge in bond prices would hamper Bitcoin’s price growth and vice versa. Furthermore, higher interest rates would lower the appetite for high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, leading to a decline in prices.